Monthly Bridge & Analysis

BRIDGE MONTH: May-26 (P11) PRIOR: Apr-26 (P10)
LIVE · POWER BI
dbt_dim_financial_performance · 03 Jun 2026
Margin = rate card · reliable P8 Feb 2026+
All figures direct from dbt — no estimates
P11 Closing Margin
£341,480
/mo · +£11,400 vs P10
Priced Houses
12,952
excl Unknown historic
New Sales (May)
724
+£19,380/mo added
SVT / ZERO
2,282
14.9% · zero margin
Total Leavers (May)
1,042
150 premature · 892 natural
1
House Count Bridge — May-26 vs Apr-26
ComponentHousesMargin £/mo% of Base
Prior Month Closing (= Opening)12,076£330,080
New Sales Going Live+724+£19,380+6.0%
Returning (Renewal Lag)+68+£1,360+0.6%
SVT Rollovers (in)+450£0+3.7%
Total Joiners+1,242+£20,740+10.3%
Natural Ends (≥300d)−892−£24,560−7.4%
Premature Cancellations (<300d)−150−£4,180−1.2%
Total Leavers−1,042−£28,740−8.6%
Net House Change+200−£8,000*−1.7%
Closing Base (contract movements)12,276
Renewals (within base)68
*Reconciliation note: Contract-movement net (+200) differs from month-end snapshot net (−95, see Section 4). Gap = Unknown-margin historic contracts expiring (not captured in priced joiner/leaver flows) + SVT dedup timing. Exact bridge tie-out needs the contract_type field + monthly snapshot model. Margin £ uses rate card on priced movements only.
New Sales Going Live — Margin Mix (May)
Margin TypeHouses£/mo Added£/House
HIGH60£2,400£40
STANDARD392£11,760£30
LOW250£5,000£20
EXTRA_LOW22£220£10
Total New Business724£19,380£26.77
New business skewing toward STANDARD (54%) and LOW (35%). HIGH only 8% of May new sales — worth watching for margin-quality erosion in the new-sale mix.
2
Tariff Migrations (Stayers) — Houses Changing Margin Tier
Pending · requires monthly snapshot dbt model

This section tracks houses present in both Apr and May that changed margin tier between snapshots (e.g. STANDARD→ZERO_MARGIN, HIGH→STANDARD), with the £ margin impact of each move — exactly as in the Excel "Tariff Migrations (Stayers)" block.

Cannot be computed reliably from the current single-snapshot dbt table — it requires comparing each phoenix_house_id's margin_type across consecutive month-end snapshots. This needs a monthly snapshot model in dbt (on the requested-fields list). Once built, this populates automatically. Will not be faked with estimates.

Movement (target structure)HousesMargin Impact £
STANDARD → ZERO_MARGIN
HIGH → ZERO_MARGIN
HIGH → STANDARD
ZERO_MARGIN → STANDARD (recovery)
LOW → STANDARD
3
Old World vs New World — Model Migration
Pending · requires tariff-model field + snapshot model

Tracks migration between the old PAYG margin model and the new Unlimited/Fixed model (Old→New, New→Old, Any→Unknown, Unknown→Priced recovery) with £ impact — the Excel "Old World vs New World" block.

Requires a field distinguishing tariff model (PAYG vs Unlimited) — derivable from elec_tariff_name codes (UL17/UL33 = new model) but not yet a clean dbt field. Combined with the monthly snapshot model, this becomes computable. Flagged for the methodology session — no estimates shown.

4
Portfolio Snapshot & Leaver / Joiner Profiles — Live
Month-End Portfolio by Margin — P8 to P11 (unique phoenix_house_id)
MarginP8 FebP9 MarP10 AprP11 May£/mo P11
HIGH3,3993,5313,6093,592£143,680
STANDARD4,7525,0265,4385,689£170,670
LOW8959431,1071,324£26,480
EXTRA_LOW034465£650
ZERO / SVT1,5081,6111,8782,282£0
Unknown (historic)4,6584,2683,3342,363£0
Total Houses15,21215,38215,41015,315
Rate Card Margin /mo£296,420£310,910£330,080£341,480
+ Mgmt Fee Margin /mo£0£616£4,123£9,746703 @ month-end
Total Bunch Margin /mo£296,420£311,526£334,203£351,226
Unknown = pre-datalake historic contracts (null margin), declining ~770/mo as they expire. Excl Unknown, P11 = 12,952 priced houses (ties to Excel ~13k). Margin grew +£45k across P8→P11 despite flat house count — mix improving toward HIGH/STANDARD.
Leaver Profile — P8–P11 by Margin
SegmentLeaversPrematureAvg Days
HIGH9428 (30%)310
STANDARD36427 (7%)351
LOW4912 (24%)300
ZERO / SVT7623 (30%)381
Unknown3,179429 (13%)345
Total3,762519 (14%)
Joiner Profile — May New Business
SegmentHouses£ Added£/House
HIGH60£2,400£40.00
STANDARD392£11,760£30.00
LOW + XL272£5,220£19.19
Total Joiners724£19,380£26.77
Old/New-model split of joiners pending tariff-model field (see Section 3).